Tool · reference

Signal inventory

Twenty-nine signals in five categories. The fourth column is the one that matters: where each signal misleads.

Category

Timing

29 of 29 signals

Signal	When it arrives	What it tells you	Where it misleads
Comparable title performanceDemand	Any time before acquisition	The realistic size of the audience for this kind of film in this market.	Comparables chosen to justify a decision already made.
Search volume for the titleDemand	From first festival coverage	Whether awareness exists outside the industry.	Ambiguous titles absorb unrelated search traffic.
Search volume for the subjectDemand	Any time	Standing interest in the theme, independent of the film.	Interest in a subject rarely transfers to paying for a film about it.
Festival audience responseConfidence	During the festival run	How the film plays to a room that wants to like it.	Festival rooms are self-selected and generous.
Critical receptionConfidence	From first reviews	Press support available for a specialist campaign.	Reviews predict coverage, not attendance.
Talent followingDemand	Any time	Reach you can borrow if the talent participates.	Follower counts include no local, cinema-going intent.
Existing rights-holder listDemand	At deal stage	Whether a direct audience already exists to inherit.	Lists without consent or recency are unusable.
Community organisation interestConfidence	8–16 weeks out	Whether intermediaries will carry the film for you.	Enthusiasm from organisers is not commitment of members.
Trailer completion rateConfidence	Days after trailer launch	Whether the promise of the film is legible.	Autoplay and paid placement inflate everything above 25%.
Trailer share rateIntent	Days after trailer launch	Endorsement — the viewer risked their own reputation.	Tiny denominators produce dramatic percentages.
Notify-me registrationsIntent	From first campaign beat	Costly interest: the audience expects future contact.	Incentivised sign-ups measure the incentive.
Calendar and reminder addsIntent	From date announcement	Diary-level commitment, the strongest pre-launch signal.	Volumes are small; read direction, not scale.
Screening requests by locationIntent	6–12 weeks out	Where the audience is, in the audience's own words.	Organised campaigns cluster requests artificially.
Email list growth rateIntent	Continuous	Whether the campaign is accumulating an asset.	Growth without engagement is a decaying asset.
Newsletter click-throughIntent	Per send	Whether your own audience is warm for this title.	One strong subject line can mask a cold list.
Presale volumeConversion	From tickets on sale	The hardest available pre-launch evidence.	Presale culture varies wildly by market and chain.
Showtime lookupsConversion	From listings going live	Approach to purchase, even when the sale is invisible.	Lookups without nearby sessions record frustration, not demand.
Cinema finder searches by postcodeConversion	Launch week onward	Gaps between where demand is and where the film plays.	Urban bias in digital media distorts the map.
Click-out to ticketingConversion	Launch week onward	Closest proxy to purchase intent you own.	Broken exhibitor deep links lose the sale after the click.
Opening weekend admissionsConversion	Monday after opening	The outcome, and the base for the hold calculation.	Screen count and session times explain more than marketing did.
Second weekend holdConversion	Ten days in	Whether word of mouth is working.	Competitive openings and weather move holds by double digits.
Per-screen average by venueConversion	Weekly	Which venues and regions to defend with spend.	Single strong venues can carry a failing national picture.
Live search queries about the filmLearning	From launch week	The questions your materials failed to answer.	Query samples are small and skew to the unusual.
Suitability and content questionsLearning	Continuous	Barriers stopping a decided viewer from booking.	Loud minorities ask atypical questions.
Audience sentiment in reviewsLearning	From opening weekend	Whether expectation matched experience.	Review platforms attract the delighted and the furious.
Word-of-mouth referral trafficLearning	Week two onward	Whether the film is spreading without spend.	Dark social makes most referral traffic look direct.
Repeat attendance indicatorsLearning	Week three onward	Depth of connection with the core audience.	Rarely measurable without exhibitor cooperation.
Retained contactable audienceLearning	End of theatrical	What the release leaves behind for the next title.	Counts without consent status overstate the asset.
Hypothesis outcome recordLearning	Two weeks after close	Which assumptions held, and which signal warned you first.	Written after the fact, it becomes a justification, not a record.

Demand · Before acquisition
Comparable title performance
Arrives
Any time before acquisition
Tells you
The realistic size of the audience for this kind of film in this market.
Misleads
Comparables chosen to justify a decision already made.
Demand · Before acquisition
Search volume for the title
Arrives
From first festival coverage
Tells you
Whether awareness exists outside the industry.
Misleads
Ambiguous titles absorb unrelated search traffic.
Demand · Before acquisition
Search volume for the subject
Arrives
Any time
Tells you
Standing interest in the theme, independent of the film.
Misleads
Interest in a subject rarely transfers to paying for a film about it.
Confidence · Before acquisition
Festival audience response
Arrives
During the festival run
Tells you
How the film plays to a room that wants to like it.
Misleads
Festival rooms are self-selected and generous.
Confidence · Before acquisition
Critical reception
Arrives
From first reviews
Tells you
Press support available for a specialist campaign.
Misleads
Reviews predict coverage, not attendance.
Demand · Before acquisition
Talent following
Arrives
Any time
Tells you
Reach you can borrow if the talent participates.
Misleads
Follower counts include no local, cinema-going intent.
Demand · Before acquisition
Existing rights-holder list
Arrives
At deal stage
Tells you
Whether a direct audience already exists to inherit.
Misleads
Lists without consent or recency are unusable.
Confidence · Before launch
Community organisation interest
Arrives
8–16 weeks out
Tells you
Whether intermediaries will carry the film for you.
Misleads
Enthusiasm from organisers is not commitment of members.
Confidence · Before launch
Trailer completion rate
Arrives
Days after trailer launch
Tells you
Whether the promise of the film is legible.
Misleads
Autoplay and paid placement inflate everything above 25%.
Intent · Before launch
Trailer share rate
Arrives
Days after trailer launch
Tells you
Endorsement — the viewer risked their own reputation.
Misleads
Tiny denominators produce dramatic percentages.
Intent · Before launch
Notify-me registrations
Arrives
From first campaign beat
Tells you
Costly interest: the audience expects future contact.
Misleads
Incentivised sign-ups measure the incentive.
Intent · Before launch
Calendar and reminder adds
Arrives
From date announcement
Tells you
Diary-level commitment, the strongest pre-launch signal.
Misleads
Volumes are small; read direction, not scale.
Intent · Before launch
Screening requests by location
Arrives
6–12 weeks out
Tells you
Where the audience is, in the audience's own words.
Misleads
Organised campaigns cluster requests artificially.
Intent · Before launch
Email list growth rate
Arrives
Continuous
Tells you
Whether the campaign is accumulating an asset.
Misleads
Growth without engagement is a decaying asset.
Intent · Before launch
Newsletter click-through
Arrives
Per send
Tells you
Whether your own audience is warm for this title.
Misleads
One strong subject line can mask a cold list.
Conversion · Before launch
Presale volume
Arrives
From tickets on sale
Tells you
The hardest available pre-launch evidence.
Misleads
Presale culture varies wildly by market and chain.
Conversion · Launch week
Showtime lookups
Arrives
From listings going live
Tells you
Approach to purchase, even when the sale is invisible.
Misleads
Lookups without nearby sessions record frustration, not demand.
Conversion · Launch week
Cinema finder searches by postcode
Arrives
Launch week onward
Tells you
Gaps between where demand is and where the film plays.
Misleads
Urban bias in digital media distorts the map.
Conversion · Launch week
Click-out to ticketing
Arrives
Launch week onward
Tells you
Closest proxy to purchase intent you own.
Misleads
Broken exhibitor deep links lose the sale after the click.
Conversion · Launch week
Opening weekend admissions
Arrives
Monday after opening
Tells you
The outcome, and the base for the hold calculation.
Misleads
Screen count and session times explain more than marketing did.
Conversion · In release
Second weekend hold
Arrives
Ten days in
Tells you
Whether word of mouth is working.
Misleads
Competitive openings and weather move holds by double digits.
Conversion · In release
Per-screen average by venue
Arrives
Weekly
Tells you
Which venues and regions to defend with spend.
Misleads
Single strong venues can carry a failing national picture.
Learning · In release
Live search queries about the film
Arrives
From launch week
Tells you
The questions your materials failed to answer.
Misleads
Query samples are small and skew to the unusual.
Learning · In release
Suitability and content questions
Arrives
Continuous
Tells you
Barriers stopping a decided viewer from booking.
Misleads
Loud minorities ask atypical questions.
Learning · In release
Audience sentiment in reviews
Arrives
From opening weekend
Tells you
Whether expectation matched experience.
Misleads
Review platforms attract the delighted and the furious.
Learning · In release
Word-of-mouth referral traffic
Arrives
Week two onward
Tells you
Whether the film is spreading without spend.
Misleads
Dark social makes most referral traffic look direct.
Learning · In release
Repeat attendance indicators
Arrives
Week three onward
Tells you
Depth of connection with the core audience.
Misleads
Rarely measurable without exhibitor cooperation.
Learning · After release
Retained contactable audience
Arrives
End of theatrical
Tells you
What the release leaves behind for the next title.
Misleads
Counts without consent status overstate the asset.
Learning · After release
Hypothesis outcome record
Arrives
Two weeks after close
Tells you
Which assumptions held, and which signal warned you first.
Misleads
Written after the fact, it becomes a justification, not a record.

Signal inventory

Comparable title performance

Search volume for the title

Search volume for the subject

Festival audience response

Critical reception

Talent following

Existing rights-holder list

Community organisation interest

Trailer completion rate

Trailer share rate

Notify-me registrations

Calendar and reminder adds

Screening requests by location

Email list growth rate

Newsletter click-through

Presale volume

Showtime lookups

Cinema finder searches by postcode

Click-out to ticketing

Opening weekend admissions

Second weekend hold

Per-screen average by venue

Live search queries about the film

Suitability and content questions

Audience sentiment in reviews

Word-of-mouth referral traffic

Repeat attendance indicators

Retained contactable audience

Hypothesis outcome record